:Product: 0430RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 29/2151Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 30/1959Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0025Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 337 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (03 May).

III.  Event probabilities 01 May-03 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Apr 148
Predicted   01 May-03 May 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        30 Apr 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr  011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May  007/005-010/008-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/35
Minor Storm           01/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    20/25/50
