:Product: 0501RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (02 May, 03 May) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (04 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 01/1702Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 01/1750Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 01/1626Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 340 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (03 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (04 May).

III.  Event probabilities 02 May-04 May
Class M    50/45/45
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 May 152
Predicted   02 May-04 May 150/145/145
90 Day Mean        01 May 170

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  014/ 014
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 May  018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  013/018-007/010-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May-04 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           25/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/55
