:Product: 0502RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 122 Issued at 2200Z on 02 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04 May,
05 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 02/1021Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 02/0004Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 01/2310Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1450 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 May, 04
May, 05 May).

III.  Event probabilities 03 May-05 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 May 152
Predicted   03 May-05 May 150/155/155
90 Day Mean        02 May 169

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 May  021/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 May  027/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May  015/018-012/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 May-05 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/40
