:Product: 0504RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May,
07 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 874 km/s at 03/2134Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2010Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 04/1441Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9364 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (05 May, 06 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 May).

III.  Event probabilities 05 May-07 May
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 May 159
Predicted   05 May-07 May 160/160/160
90 Day Mean        04 May 168

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  014/018-010/012-007/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May-07 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25
