:Product: 0506RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May,
09 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 814 km/s at 05/2114Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 06/1311Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
06/1718Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11876 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (08 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (09 May).

III.  Event probabilities 07 May-09 May
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 May 156
Predicted   07 May-09 May 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        06 May 167

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May  023/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May  012/015-008/010-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/40
Minor Storm           15/05/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/05
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/35/70
