:Product: 0508RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 May, 10 May,
11 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1031 km/s at 08/0629Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 08/0618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
08/2032Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 15854 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 May) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 May, 11 May).

III.  Event probabilities 09 May-11 May
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 May 149
Predicted   09 May-11 May 150/150/140
90 Day Mean        08 May 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 May  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  017/025-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May-11 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/35
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/50/45
