:Product: 0509RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (12 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 511 km/s at 09/0323Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
09/2021Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 16117 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (10 May, 11 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 10 May-12 May
Class M    40/40/10
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 May 136
Predicted   10 May-12 May 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        09 May 166

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  010/012-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May-12 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/25
