:Product: 0510RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (11 May) and likely to be low on
days two and three (12 May, 13 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 554 km/s at 10/1225Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/2126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
09/2126Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1326 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 May, 13 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 May).

III.  Event probabilities 11 May-13 May
Class M    40/05/05
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 May 134
Predicted   11 May-13 May 130/125/120
90 Day Mean        10 May 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 May  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  010/012-007/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May-13 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/40
Minor Storm           15/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/25/50
