:Product: 0511RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 131 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 10/2147Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
11/1827Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 836 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (12 May, 14
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 May).

III.  Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 May 126
Predicted   12 May-14 May 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        11 May 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/20
Minor Storm           05/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/50/25
