:Product: 0512RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (13 May) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(14 May, 15 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 11/2157Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 12/1908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2134Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 381 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (13 May, 15 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 May).

III.  Event probabilities 13 May-15 May
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 May 116
Predicted   13 May-15 May 116/114/116
90 Day Mean        12 May 165

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  014/ 013
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 May  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  010/012-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May-15 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/30
Minor Storm           15/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/40
