:Product: 0513RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (14 May) and likely to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 435 km/s at 13/0828Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 13/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
13/1832Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 5 pfu at 13/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 705 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active
levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May).
Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one
(14 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (15
May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     75/10/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 117
Predicted   14 May-16 May 116/116/116
90 Day Mean        13 May 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  007/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  008/003-011/004-007/003

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/10
Minor Storm           05/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/20
