:Product: 0514RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 May, 16
May, 17 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 14/0740Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 14/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
14/1651Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 13/2220Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 601 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 May, 17 May)
and quiet levels on day two (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 May).

III.  Event probabilities 15 May-17 May
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 May 122
Predicted   15 May-17 May 116/116/118
90 Day Mean        14 May 164

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May  009/ 009
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May  011/012-007/008-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May-17 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/30
Minor Storm           10/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/40
