:Product: 0522RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May,
25 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 647 km/s at 21/2112Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
22/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1928Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1643 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24
May, 25 May).

III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 May 120
Predicted   23 May-25 May 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        22 May 158

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  009/012-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/40
