:Product: 0524RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May, 26 May,
27 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 474 km/s at 24/0127Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
24/1600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
24/1052Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).

III.  Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 May 130
Predicted   25 May-27 May 135/140/135
90 Day Mean        24 May 156

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  009/008-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/30/30
