:Product: 0525RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 25 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27
May, 28 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 508 km/s at 25/0215Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
25/0648Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/1157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1038 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 May, 27 May)
and quiet to active levels on day three (28 May). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 May, 27
May, 28 May).

III.  Event probabilities 26 May-28 May
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 May 133
Predicted   26 May-28 May 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        25 May 155

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 May  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 May  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  009/008-008/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 May-28 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/40
