:Product: 0529RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 837 km/s at 29/1956Z. Total
IMF reached 25 nT at 29/0007Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -24 nT at 29/0007Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 581 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (30 May) and quiet
to minor storm levels on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun). Protons
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(30 May, 31 May, 01 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 May 145
Predicted   30 May-01 Jun 138/135/135
90 Day Mean        29 May 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May  017/ N60
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May  040/069
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun  029/032-018/022-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor Storm           35/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    75/60/60
