:Product: 0530RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 848 km/s at 30/0655Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 30/0853Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 30/0011Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4876 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 May), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 May 157
Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        30 May 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  038/ 33
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May  028/036
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  016/022-017/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/45
