:Product: 0601RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Jun, 03 Jun, 04 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1130 km/s at 01/1154Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 01/1008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-23 nT at 01/0529Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 666 pfu at 01/0915Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4397 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (02 Jun), active to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (04 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(02 Jun), are expected to cross threshold on day two (03 Jun) and are
likely to cross threshold on day three (04 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     99/75/60
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jun 150
Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun 150/150/150
90 Day Mean        01 Jun 154

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun  061/124
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  050/086-023/035-016/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           35/35/20
Major-severe storm    55/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           05/20/25
Major-severe storm    95/75/55
