:Product: 0603RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Jun, 05 Jun, 06 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 804 km/s at 03/0951Z. Total
IMF reached 15 nT at 02/2218Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -13 nT at 03/0013Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 03/0050Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 3366 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Jun, 05
Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jun,
05 Jun, 06 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jun 135
Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        03 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  038/ 069
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jun  040/059
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  014/018-018/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun-06 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/60/50
