:Product: 0604RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 834 km/s at 04/1826Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 04/1356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/1445Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3973 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (05 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jun) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (07 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (05 Jun, 06 Jun, 07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jun 134
Predicted   05 Jun-07 Jun 135/130/125
90 Day Mean        04 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jun  032/ 058
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jun  017/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  024/033-014/015-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jun-07 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           35/15/25
Major-severe storm    20/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    75/50/60
