:Product: 0605RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun,
08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 765 km/s at 04/2240Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
05/1706Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2215 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (06 Jun, 08 Jun)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (07 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 128
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 128/128/125
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  017/ 026
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  014/015-014/018-014/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/50
