:Product: 0610RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun,
13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 09/2140Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1907Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 633 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Jun, 13 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 129
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  013/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  011/012-008/008-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/40
Minor Storm           10/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/55
