:Product: 0616RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(19 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 16/1739Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 16/0654Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
16/0723Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 647 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Jun, 18 Jun) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Jun). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (17 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (18 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
Class M    75/75/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     30/15/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jun 148
Predicted   17 Jun-19 Jun 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        16 Jun 149

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun  010/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun  013/015-014/017-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun-19 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/50/40
