:Product: 0623RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 22/2358Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 23/0039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
23/0010Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1271 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jun), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (25 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (26 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (24 Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jun 122
Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        23 Jun 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  009/ 008
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  010/012-028/040-021/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/35/25
Major-severe storm    01/25/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/10
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    40/80/55
