:Product: 0701RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Jul,
03 Jul, 04 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 873 km/s at 01/0729Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 30/2334Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
30/2223Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3574 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jul), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (04 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
Class M    20/15/15
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Jul 126
Predicted   02 Jul-04 Jul 128/128/130
90 Day Mean        01 Jul 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun  011/ 009
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul  023/032-015/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul-04 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/35
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    70/65/50
