:Product: 0702RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul,
04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/2119Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
02/0826Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
02/1646Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4925 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (04 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 130
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 130/130/128
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  007/ 006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  017/022-011/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/20
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/25
