:Product: 0703RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Jul, 05 Jul, 06 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 411 km/s at 03/1025Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 03/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
03/1220Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1219 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jul, 06 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Jul 125
Predicted   04 Jul-06 Jul 130/132/135
90 Day Mean        03 Jul 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jul  008/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jul  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jul-06 Jul  011/012-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jul-06 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/25/20
