:Product: 0704RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05
Jul, 06 Jul, 07 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 04/0646Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 04/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
03/2204Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 477 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jul,
06 Jul, 07 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Jul 119
Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul 120/118/115
90 Day Mean        04 Jul 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  016/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jul  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  009/010-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul-07 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/25/25
