:Product: 0705RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 05 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06
Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 05/1537Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 05/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 05/2034Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 354 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jul, 07 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 117
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 115/115/113
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  011/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  009/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10
