:Product: 0706RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul, 09 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 06/0708Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 05/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 06/1014Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 Jul, 08 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (09 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Jul 118
Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul 115/113/111
90 Day Mean        06 Jul 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  020/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul  014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  009/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10
