:Product: 0707RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Jul, 09 Jul, 10 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 07/2054Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/0211Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 06/2222Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Jul 118
Predicted   08 Jul-10 Jul 113/111/110
90 Day Mean        07 Jul 139

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  020/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jul  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  008/008-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul-10 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    25/10/10
