:Product: 0711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul,
14 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 11/1257Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 11/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
11/0923Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2332 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (13 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Jul 132
Predicted   12 Jul-14 Jul 135/135/135
90 Day Mean        11 Jul 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul  011/012-011/015-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           15/30/10
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    45/65/40
