:Product: 0712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 12/0907Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
12/1405Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 435 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Jul 139
Predicted   13 Jul-15 Jul 140/140/145
90 Day Mean        12 Jul 137

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul  012/015-010/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25
