:Product: 0714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul,
17 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/2149Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/1855Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/1905Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1234 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Jul 128
Predicted   15 Jul-17 Jul 128/128/125
90 Day Mean        14 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul  017/ 015
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  012/015-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/15/15
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/25/20
