:Product: 0715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul,
18 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 766 km/s at 15/0243Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 15/0203Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 15/0241Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1798 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (18 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Jul 139
Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul 128/125/128
90 Day Mean        15 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  016/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul  021/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  013/014-009/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/20
