:Product: 0716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 15/2224Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 16/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
16/1758Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4844 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Jul, 18 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Jul 152
Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul 125/128/130
90 Day Mean        16 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  017/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul  011/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  009/008-009/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/10
