:Product: 0717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 789 km/s at 17/1436Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 16/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 17/1016Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6593 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M    60/60/60
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Jul 156
Predicted   18 Jul-20 Jul 158/155/150
90 Day Mean        17 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul  013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  011/015-010/010-009/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/15
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/25/25
