:Product: 0719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 577 km/s at 19/0042Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
18/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
19/0449Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 11582 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Jul 153
Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul 150/148/145
90 Day Mean        19 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
