:Product: 0720RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 19/2225Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
20/1014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/0949Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 14494 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and unsettled
to active levels on day three (23 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jul, 22 Jul, 23 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jul 150
Predicted   21 Jul-23 Jul 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        20 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul  005/005-005/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/40
