:Product: 0721RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (22 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 634 km/s at 21/0723Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
21/1745Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
21/0008Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 13015 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Jul, 24 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (23 Jul). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (22
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M    40/35/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jul 143
Predicted   22 Jul-24 Jul 138/135/135
90 Day Mean        21 Jul 136

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul  007/ 005
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul  005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul  009/012-017/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/55/50
