:Product: 0722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jul, 24 Jul,
25 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 1091 km/s at 22/0617Z. Total IMF reached 41
nT at 22/1600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
22/1941Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10545 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
Class M    35/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jul 145
Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul 135/135/132
90 Day Mean        22 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  004/ 004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  017/025-013/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul-25 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/15
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/25
