:Product: 0723RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul,
26 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 776 km/s at 23/1849Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 23/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 23/0038Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 771 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Jul 150
Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 140/135/130
90 Day Mean        23 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  017/ 016
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul  021/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  015/020-010/012-005/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/10
Minor Storm           25/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    60/30/10
