:Product: 0724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26 Jul,
27 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 818 km/s at 24/0738Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 23/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 24/0921Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2294 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jul), quiet levels on day
two (26 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Jul 156
Predicted   25 Jul-27 Jul 155/150/155
90 Day Mean        24 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul  020/ 027
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul  016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul  010/012-005/006-014/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/35
Minor Storm           05/01/30
Major-severe storm    01/01/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/10
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/10/65
