:Product: 0725RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jul, 27 Jul,
28 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 671 km/s at 24/2132Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
25/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/1324Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3123 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (27 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jul 148
Predicted   26 Jul-28 Jul 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        25 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul  016/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul  005/006-014/020-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul-28 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/35
Minor Storm           01/30/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/65/50
