:Product: 0726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul,
29 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 629 km/s at 25/2144Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 26/1052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
26/1157Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2510 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (29
Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jul 143
Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        26 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  014/020-011/012-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/10
Minor Storm           30/15/01
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/20
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    65/50/10
