:Product: 0727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jul, 29 Jul,
30 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 529 km/s at 27/0347Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at
27/0033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
27/1731Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1686 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Jul,
29 Jul, 30 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jul 145
Predicted   28 Jul-30 Jul 145/145/140
90 Day Mean        27 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jul  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jul  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul  010/010-006/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jul-30 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/25
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/25/35
