:Product: 0728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Jul, 30 Jul,
31 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 496 km/s at 28/0617Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
28/1344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/1718Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1872 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Jul 145
Predicted   29 Jul-31 Jul 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        28 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul  007/ 005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul  006/008-009/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/40/40
