:Product: 0729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul,
01 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 29/0709Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1816Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/0322Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 835 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Jul, 31 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Jul 152
Predicted   30 Jul-01 Aug 145/140/140
90 Day Mean        29 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul  008/ 007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  009/012-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/15
Minor Storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/25
