:Product: 0730RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug,
02 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 866 km/s at 30/0729Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 30/1109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
30/1308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 821 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (02 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Jul 149
Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug 148/146/146
90 Day Mean        30 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  009/ 008
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  012/014-008/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    45/25/20
