:Product: 0731RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug,
03 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 535 km/s at 31/0656Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/2238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/0124Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1104 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Aug, 02 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (03 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Jul 145
Predicted   01 Aug-03 Aug 145/145/145
90 Day Mean        31 Jul 135

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug  008/008-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/20
